GDP Could Fall More Than 40%, According to Atlanta Fed

May 14, 2020

Expectations for the second quarter’s GDP were already dire, but it could be even worse than expected. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker, GDP from the period of April through June is now expected to plummet 42.8%.

The tracker had been forecasting a smaller but still substantial drop of 34.9%. A week’s worth of economic data has caused the tracker to drop even further.

GDPNow, because of its reliance on real-time data, is prone to big swings and could trend higher as new data is released, but the current forecast is not substantially worse than some of Wall Street’s. Goldman Sachs, for example, is predicting a 39% GDP fall in the second quarter.

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