Investment Commentary – August 2018
August 13, 2018
While the U.S. stock market, by many broad, historical valuation measures, is alarmingly expensive, it remains reasonably priced in terms of the short-term profit perspective.
The price to 10-year earnings, the price to replacement cost, and the total stock market value relative to the size of the economy are all flashing warning signs. However, based on a short-term earnings measure, such as the current price to earnings ratio and the current earnings yield, the market is still within a reasonable range. It is possible some catalyst, such as an economic slowdown or sharp interest rate increase, could change the short-term dynamic at a time that historic valuation methods would not support current stock prices.