Investment Commentary – June 2019
June 28, 2019
The current U.S. economic expansion, which began in June 2009, has now hit its 10th anniversary. Now, in the midst of the longest uninterrupted period of economic growth, the question becomes how much longer it can last. The U.S. economy grew by 3.1 percent in the first quarter, much more than most had estimated. The lingering impacts of tax reform and a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve have allowed the U.S. to maintain strong economic growth. However, economists expect that GDP growth for the rest of the year will fall below 2 percent. The likelihood of an impending recession is also increasing. We agree with analysts who posit a 40 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months.